Identifying likely voters is a challenge for pollsters in every election. This year, the coronavirus, mail voting and a surge in political engagement may make it even harder than usual.For now, Joe Biden's 9-point lead across the critical battleground states is so significant that it is essentially
Identifying likely voters is a challenge for pollsters in every election. This year, the coronavirus, mail voting and a surge in political engagement may make it even harder than usual.
Instead, discomfort about voting is mainly a function of political views. People were asked if they would feel uncomfortable voting in person if the election were held during the week they were interviewed in June. About 40% of Biden’s supporters said they would feel uncomfortable, compared with just 6% of President Donald Trump’s supporters. This political divide transcends demographics.
It is important to emphasize that no-excuse absentee voting, in which any voter can request a mail ballot, is available in all six of the battleground states included in the Times/Siena data. Many of these voters would probably manage to navigate the absentee ballot process and successfully vote by mail, although it is impossible to say just how many.
For pollsters, the coronavirus makes the task of modeling the likely electorate even more challenging than usual. At this early stage, neither approach would be likely to account for any eventual coronavirus effect on turnout. A vote history model most certainly would not, although absentee ballot requests and returns could ultimately be helpful closer to the election. It also seems unlikely that voters in June would think much about the coronavirus when evaluating their intention to vote in November, though here again it seems likelier that voters would do so as voting nears.
Even so, Biden does not appear to be at a meaningful enthusiasm disadvantage: 65% of his supporters said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting this November, compared with 66% of Trump’s supporters. Importantly, the survey question asked whether respondents were enthusiastic about voting, not whether they were enthusiastic about the candidate they supported — where Biden appears to be at a more significant disadvantage.
United States Latest News, United States Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Hundreds Of Former Bush Officials Unite To Endorse Joe BidenA group of former George W. Bush administration officials have formed a new super PAC to endorse Joe Biden and 'engage and mobilize disenchanted GOP voters.'
Read more »
Biden pulls together hundreds of lawyers as a bulwark against election trickeryDemocratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said on Wednesday that his party has assembled a group of 600 lawyers and thousands of other people to prepare for possible 'chicanery' ahead of November's election.
Read more »
Ex-Bush officials launch super PAC backing Biden over TrumpWASHINGTON (AP) — A group of former George W. Bush administration and campaign officials have launched a new super PAC supporting Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, the latest in a...
Read more »