If Phillips overperforms in the early primary states, the calls for Biden to step aside will grow louder.
Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, who is expected to announce a quixotic primary challenge to President Biden on Friday, has no chance of winning his party’s nomination. But Biden should not rest easy; Phillips might not be a serious candidate, but he is a serious threat.If that sounds preposterous, it’s likely because primary challengers have a poor track record against incumbent presidents.
Biden’s job approval ratings also augur an easy win. He may be stuck around 41 percent approval among the public at large, but hisSo why should Biden care about Phillips? It’s simple: Lots of Americans, including many Democrats, don’t want the president to run again.shows this clearly. Only 55 percent of Democratic primary voters said they wanted Biden to be the Democratic nominee in 2024. Thirty-six percent said they wanted someone else while another 14 percent said they were not sure.
Phillips, therefore, need only present himself as a receptacle for unease about Biden. Most voters who cast their ballots for him probably won’t actually want him to win; instead, they will use him to send a clear message to the party: anyone but Biden.on Oct. 11 against Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. before the latter became an independent candidate.
Democratic leaders should also keep in mind that Ford and Carter lost their reelections despite winning the nomination. The history is clear: Messy primaries forecast general election defeats.Trump, the GOP’s presumptive nominee, in national polling. Imagine the alarm bells that will go off if he can’t convincingly win his own party’s primaries. The rumblings about Biden needing to step aside would grow to a roar, especially if he continues to trail Trump in the polls.
Phillips is not a charismatic, ideological challenger such as Reagan, Kennedy or Buchanan. But concerns about Biden’s age and competence might make this year different. If Biden can’t put Phillips away easily in the first four states, expect Super Tuesday to be a donnybrook.
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