Two new high-quality polls show Robert F. Kennedy Jr. taking more votes from Trump than Biden. And they’re not the only polls to suggest a changing dynamic.
President Biden walks out with members of the Kennedy family during a campaign event at the Martin Luther King Recreation Center in Philadelphia last week. It’s been something approaching an article of faith on the left and in some corners of the media that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. poses a spoiler threat to President Biden’s reelection.
Both NBC results are within the margin of error, but the key here is the four-point shift toward Biden when you include third-party candidates. That’s something we really haven’t seen before. The Marist poll shows Kennedy pulling only slightly more from actual Republicans than Democrats . But it suggests he’s pulling more from Trump-leaning independents.
But what generally happens as a general election proceeds is that voters gravitate toward the two major-party candidates because they actually have a shot at winning, and third-party candidates fade.
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