Biden’s Lead Over Trump Looks Massive—But Is He as Strong as He Seems With Independents?

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Biden’s Lead Over Trump Looks Massive—But Is He as Strong as He Seems With Independents?
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The very nature of independent voters, many of whom pay little attention until the eve of the election, makes it unwise to put much stock in the idea that 2020 is Biden’s to lose

come to realize that his disastrous polling could make him a one-term president. Much of that polling shift has occurred in the last three weeks, reflecting a “performance evaluation,” as UCLA political scientistput it to me, on Trump’s handling of COVID-19, the Black Lives Matter movement, and the shaky economy. And according to a new analysis of polling data and interviews with voters in key states, much of it has come at the hands of independent voters.

The reasons for this are not particularly mysterious. Over the last three months, Trump’s favorability ratings among independents have tanked across key measures such as the handling of the coronavirus pandemic, his response to the protests over George Floyd’s death at the hands of police, and even his management of the economy. More than his Twitter outrages or race baiting, it’s his lack of effectiveness that’s turning off some independents.

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