Biden’s lead over Bernie Sanders keeps growing — here’s why by AndrewRomano
When the former vice president launched his third White House bid two weeks ago, on April 25, most experts expected him to get a bounce in the polls. And he did: Seven days later, Biden’s polling average was up nearly 6 percentage points, to 35 percent, and his lead over the next closest Democratic candidate — the senator from Vermont — had grown by nearly 16.
The numbers tell the tale. This week, Biden’s polling average has climbed 4 more points, to 39 percent. The three most recent national surveys — the only ones released since the start of May — show him topping 40 percent. Although the initial polls hinted at the source of Biden’s growing support, the latest round makes it clear.On April 25, Sanders was holding steady at 23 percent, on average. Then Biden jumped in. One week later, Sanders had slipped to 17 percent.
Other candidates have also lost ground to the former Delaware senator; former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke has fallen about 2 points, on average, and California Sen. Kamala Harris is down by 1.Yes, the Iowa caucuses are still 271 days away. And yes, things can change between now and then.At first glance, the Bernie-to-Biden exodus seems strange.
The bad news for Sanders is that although the new edition of the Quinnipiac Poll — the first released post-Biden — shows him hanging onto nearly all of his very liberal supporters , it also shows him hemorrhaging voters who call themselves somewhat liberal and moderate or conservative . Which brings us to second pattern that surfaces in the post-Biden polling: Sanders doesn’t have much room left to grow, especially with Biden as a rival. Analysts often cite Biden’s near-universal name recognition, which stands at 99 percent among Democratic primary voters, to argue that his standing is largely a function of familiarity and might not last.
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