OPINION: Biden, Republicans and 2024: It's the 'unknowns' that will sink or save the incumbent
was coming off a major defeat in the midterms, and no one could predict that he would be able to win reelection partially because of some support for ObamaCare, and that Super Storm Sandy in the last weeks of the 2012 campaign would enable Obama to blunt his opponent’s attacks.
If two weeks is a lifetime in politics, two years is an eternity. But unlike in previous elections – when essentially a two-year forecast of the political environment was fully unpredictable, this time around, we kind of know what we’re going to be discussing two years from now – even though we can’t know how it will affect the race.
In 2014, Hillary Clinton was a popular former Secretary of State, who was widely expected to be the Democrat’s 2016 nominee – no one realized that she’d have real trouble getting the nomination over an unknown Vermont independent Senator and that her opponent would be a novice candidate, Donald Trump, who would be able to make effective use of a unknown email server, together with a government investigation, to wind up winning the White House.
While there are undoubtedly unknown unknowns in store for American politics, but there are a large set of known unknowns that will fuel the debate. We don’t know how they’re likely to turn out – but we can be pretty sure that they will be driving the debate in 2024.
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