WASHINGTON (NYTIMES) - A wave of new national surveys shows that Joe Biden maintains a significant if slightly diminished lead over Donald Trump, leaving him in a stronger position to oust an incumbent president than any challenger heading into his party's convention in the modern polling era.. Read more at straitstimes.com.
WASHINGTON - A wave of new national surveys shows that Joe Biden maintains a significant if slightly diminished lead over Donald Trump, leaving him in a stronger position to oust an incumbent president than any challenger heading into his party's convention in the modern polling era.His advantage is perhaps slightly smaller than it was a month ago, when high-quality live-interview telephone surveys routinely showed him with a double-digit lead.
Though it's possible that the virtual nature of this year's conventions will dampen that effect, this may be the last unbiased measurement of the state of the race until mid-September. The slight narrowing of Biden's lead tracks with a similarly modest improvement in the president's job approval rating.
But Biden's support hasn't declined, even as his lead has shrunk somewhat. In fact, his share of the vote has increased. He now holds 51 per cent of the vote in the polls, an unprecedented figure for a challenger heading into his party's convention in the seven decades or so of modern polling. Trump's gains have been largest among white voters without a college degree, who now back him by 24 points, up from 18 points in live-interview polls weighted by education conducted in June or July. His strength among this group represents his only realistic path to victory, as it did in 2016. Yet he continues to underperform among these voters compared with the preelection polls from four years ago.
A longer-term average of polling suggests that Trump's relative strength among nonwhite voters is broad. He is faring better than he did four years ago among both Black and Hispanic voters.
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