Donald Trump’s threat to dump allies would risk a nuclear free-for-all
works—or at least it has so far. To understand how, look at the war in Ukraine. America and Europe arm their ally but dare not deploy combat troops against Russia. In turn, Russia dares not strike at the West. Mutual terror ensures that nuclear powers do not attack each other overtly, just as it stopped the cold war from turning hot, even though plenty of proxy conflicts raged.
Extended deterrence is counter-intuitive, in that America risks the homeland for the sake of allies. The promise, firm enough to deter the Kremlin, has always been plagued by some doubt. To strengthen it, America has deployed troops and nuclear weapons in Europe, and has given allies a role in nuclear missions. Winston Churchill is said to have quipped that all he needed to defend Europe was one American soldier, “preferably dead”.
Nobody knows quite what Mr Trump would do; even he may not be sure, despite his bluster about ending the war in Ukraine in a day. But his comments, former advisers’ accounts of his desire to leave, and so to allies generally. Congressional Republicans’ months-long blocking of a bill to provide aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan is a bad omen.
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