Newsweek analyzes the best Nuggets vs. Thunder prop bets in the second matchup in as many days between the Western Conference contenders.
In the second game of a rare regular-season back-to-back, the Nuggets are in Oklahoma City again tonight after losing 127-103 to the Thunder on Sunday afternoon.MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and OKC continue to look like the team to beat in the West.
Yesterday's game was a great example of why the Thunder are currently -130 or shorter to reach the Finals .On Sunday, OKC led Denver just 86-83 entering the fourth quarter, but pulled away by outscoring the visitors 41-20 over the final 12 minutes.After easily covering as 7.5-point favorites in Sunday's game, the spread for tonight's matchup is 10 points or more at most sportsbooks.Nuggets vs. Thunders tips off tonight at 8 p.m. ET on NBA TV.Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Odds FD bet365 DK DEN spread +10.5 +10.5 +10.5 OKC spread -10.5 -10.5 -10.5 DEN ML +380 +390 +400 OKC ML -500 -525 -535 Total 235 235 235.5 Best Player Prop Bets for Nuggets vs. ThunderShai Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ Points -- 1 unitFirst of all, there's value here given that SGA to score 35 points is priced at even money over at DraftKings. Right now, not a lot of complex analysis is needed to justify betting on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to have a big scoring night. He's gone over 40 points in three straight games, and he's scored at least 37 points in five of his last eight contests.His volume of shot attempts is staggering, both for the season and in recent weeks. SGA's 9 FTA's per game is also huge for both his floor and his ceiling as a scorer. With an average of an absurd 29 FGA per game over his last three games, SGA at plus-money to reach 35 points tonight is a steal. Also keep in mind that he finished with 40-plus points against the Nuggets yesterday while shooting just 2-for-11 from 3-point land. Given the tear he's on, the question right now is whether to take Gilgeous-Alexander to get to 35 or 40 points. He has to cool off at some point , but there's still more value in betting on yet another huge night by SGA than zagging and fading a guy who is this efficient on a massive nightly workload. Two more reasons to take a flier on SGA to reach 40 points: 1) He's done this 11 times this year in 62 games 2) Three of his 40-point nights have come since March 3 Bonus bet: SGA 40+ points -- 0.25 unitsJalen Williams 25+ Points -- 0.75 unitsEvery player in the Thunder rotation is feasting right now as opponents struggle to contain SGA. But if there's one guy who's been the single-biggest beneficiary in recent weeks, it's Jalen Williams. He's scored at least 20 points in each of his last seven games, with at least 24 points in four of them.With 16 or more field-goal attempts in six of his last seven games, Williams is primed for another big offensive night, especially given all the bodies Denver will likely throw at Gilgeous-Alexander.The spread tells us there's a good chance this will be a one-sided affair. And with three straight road games for the Thunder on Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday, there's a real chance OKC could sit SGA down the stretch, which would presumably mean even more looks for the 23-year-old Williams. He's second on the Thunder in minutes per game at 32.9, and a more substantial workload than usual tonight would be huge for his chances to record his 20th game of the season with at least 25 points.Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Best BetsIt's hard to come up with a good reason to doubt the younger, hotter team at home on the second night of a back-to-back. The Thunder are 2-1 vs. the Nuggets this year, with both wins coming by double-digits, and OKC's seven-game winning streak includes five victories by 14 points or more.Tonight's game might be close at halftime and/or entering the fourth, but the Thunder feel like a safe bet to cover .Nuggets vs. Thunder Best Bets Thunder -10.5 -- 1 unit Nuggets First Half +6.5 -- 0.5 units Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator's terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
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