Best NBA player props for March 21. NBA player prop projections, odds, and best bets today, including point props, rebound props, and more.
Jon Metler's NBA betting picks are sensing some soft lines in the NBA player props as March Madness takes center stage, and he'll attack three of them on Thursday night, including Donte DiVincenzo's assist prop vs.
the Nuggets.Don't let March Madness distract you from the fact that we have seven games on the NBA schedule on Thursday and plenty ofMarch Madness is a massive event when it comes to sports betting and requires a lot of focus from the trading teams at the sportsbooks. That's perfect for us as they keep the focus on March Madness, as we find some probability gaps in the odds for the The NBA did the sportsbooks no favors by putting seven games on the schedule on Thursday, and that's just how I like it. Find out who I'm backing in my freetrading at a total of 2.5 always grabs my attention, and he delivered multiple green checkmarks for us on this number just a couple of weeks ago. The thing with Vucevic on Thursday is that not only is the total 2.5, but the juice is +125. Hit the button.are playing small ball without Alperen Sengun in the starting lineup and are starting Jabari Smith Jr. at center. Theshould be looking to take advantage of this with Vucevic and feeding him the ball in the post. More touches for Vucevic in the post mean more potential for assists. Even if you look at Vucevic's last two games where he has combined for only two assists, he is averaging six potential assists in those two games. That's a massive number for someone trading at 2.5 . The opportunities are there for Vucevic, he just needs his teammates to make the shots. He should receive some help on that front on Thursday as Coby White was a full participant at practice and looks like he should return to the Bulls lineup on Thursday. Vucevic is projected to have three assists on Thursday against the Rockets, which means we can price the Over 2.5 assists at -130, but it is available aton Wednesday, you would have seen Chet Holmgren drop 35 points on the Jazz, make some posters, and consistently finish at the rim. The Jazz's frontcourt of John Collins at center and Taylor Hendricks at power forward really struggled to slow down Holmgren in the pick-and-roll.are going to attack the Jazz the exact same way. The Mavericks have two ball handlers in Irving and Luka Doncic and two lob threats in Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford who can completely expose this Jazz defense. When you break down the numbers, there is an argument to be made that you could play Irving Over 5.5 assists at +130 instead of laying -135 on the 4.5. The expected value is around 1% higher for the Over 5.5 at a juice of +130. I'm sticking with the 4.5 for Irving even though the EV is technically 1% lower. The spread on this game is -14.5 for the Mavericks, and there is potential for a blowout by the Mavericks. For me, the EV difference isn't strong enough to attack the alternate Over in this spot. Irving is projected to have 5.9 assists on Thursday against the Jazz, which means we can price the Over 4.5 assists at -216, but it is available athad six assists in only 26 minutes of action. This also came at a time when Julius Randle and OG Anunoby were on the floor for the Knicks, and they were way less dependent on DiVincenzo and his offense. This is not the current state of the Knicks, and they are now heavily dependent on DiVincenzo helping Jalen Brunson create some offense. The Nuggets are a strong defensive team, and they are going to look to keep Brunson from getting to his spots in the mid-range game and penetrating the lane to create shots for others. The Nuggets will prevent this by stunting a bunch on his drives, and the Knicks countered last time by making DiVincenzo one pass away from Brunson. If you stunt, you have now created space for DiVincenzo to potentially get off a 3-point shot. What ends up happening is the ball goes to DiVincenzo, and while the Nuggets can make one defensive rotation, it's hard to make two without someone getting a wide-open shot. DiVincenzo makes one extra pass, and now the Knicks have a wide-open 3-pointer. It's essentially DiVincenzo stealing the assists of Brunson with the way the defense is choosing to guard Brunson. DiVincenzo is projected to have three assists on Thursday against the Nuggets, which means we can price the Over 2.5 assists at -126, but it is available at DraftKings at +110. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 17%.Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. 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