Bank of Canada chief advocates low rates but sees light on economic outlook

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Bank of Canada chief advocates low rates but sees light on economic outlook
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Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz expressed guarded optimism on Monday that ...

IQALUIT, Nunavut - Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz expressed guarded optimism on Monday that the country would emerge from a soft patch, but maintained a cautious tone overall, saying the economic outlook still warrants an interest rate below the neutral range.

Even so, Poloz said there are clear signs that Canada is adjusting, with the central bank seeing many areas of encouraging economic growth. “There was no food for those hungry for signs that the bank is contemplating a rate cut,” Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note. “Indeed, it’s still putting weight on its view that things will get better from Canada as we look ahead.”

Poloz said the Bank of Canada was not forecasting a recession despite the inversion of the yield curve on U.S. Treasuries late last month. An inverted yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession for the last 50 years, but many market participants question whether it is a good indicator now. “These data suggest that the mixed picture offered up by the Canadian economy today reflects some important structural changes beneath the surface,” he said.

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