The pre-mortem method for risk assessment can make people very risk-averse. A double-barreled pre-mortem could help foster boldness to balance the risk aversion.
However, pre-mortems also tend to encourage risk aversion, which isn't always healthy.A double-barreled pre-mortem fosters boldness to balance the risk aversion. The method itself is very simple. The project team preparing to work on a new effort goes through a short exercise.
However, pre-mortems also tend to encourage risk aversion, which isn't always healthy.A double-barreled pre-mortem fosters boldness to balance the risk aversion.. The method itself is very simple. The project team preparing to work on a new effort goes through a short exercise. They imagine that an infallible crystal ball is showing that this project will fail. Perhaps in 6 months, perhaps a year, the project turned into a disaster. The team members then have two minutes to write down all the reasons why the project failed. These reasons are compiled for everyone to see. The results are usually surprising and valuable. Issues get surfaced that ordinarily never get mentioned. And the team then revisits the plan to avoid or minimize the weaknesses.And yet I have my own reservations about the method. I have described a simple equation for improving performance: a down arrow, which is what you want to reduce , plus an up arrow, which is what you want to increase . I have seen so many organizations emphasize the down arrow and impose methods to cut down on errors. They do not, however, put into place methods to foster insights. Organizations cannot thrive simply by reducing mistakes, yet that is where their energies get directed.The pre-mortem method feeds into this emphasis on the down arrow. It is a way to flag and then reduce potential errors. It can exacerbate the imbalance between the two arrows in the diagram. That’s what has been worrying me. This essay describes a companion to the traditional pre-mortem. What if we ran a second pre-mortem but in the opposite direction? In addition to a pre-mortem envisioning a plan that failed, we might run a pre-mortem envisioning a failure resulting from not implementing the plan.pandemic, a state or country might have done a pre-mortem to consider the downside of their potential plans to contain the virus. They could also have done a pre-mortem to consider the downside of doing nothing. The double-barreled pre-mortem is not intended to provide an answer about what to do. Rather, it aims to broaden the aperture to consider the risks of inaction and to counter the tendency of pre-mortem exercises to discourage bold action. I have worked with one community that does appreciate how important it is to maintain a balanced view—financial investment firms. They talk about downside risks, such as investing in a company that goes out of business and losing all of the investment. They also talk about upside risks: failing to invest in companies that have spectacular success. The financial management firms with which I work know that analysts have a natural tendency to avoid downside risks, but the worst that can happen is that you lose your investment. In contrast, failing to invest in a company like Apple,, or Tesla when it was just getting started meant missing out on a massive payday. Clearly, these early bets were big risks—but an excessively risk-averse stance would prevent any big paydays. That’s why I am presenting the double-barreled pre-mortem as a means of balancing the down and the up arrows. As a way of encouraging bold action instead of just fostering caution.Life never gets easier. Fortunately, psychology is keeping up, uncovering new ways to maintain mental and physical health, and positivity and confidence, through manageable daily habits like these. How many are you ready to try?Self Tests are all about you. Are you outgoing or introverted? Are you a narcissist? Does perfectionism hold you back? Find out the answers to these questions and more with Psychology Today.
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