Sharp changes in air humidity missed by climate-change models are responsible for the jump in the frequency of devastating fires.
This century, Australia has suffered more frequent and more severe bushfires. The Black Summer fires of 2019-2020 were theHow much climate change has contributed to these increases is a hot topic. Bushfire risk is dialled up by four switches: fuel amount, fuel condition, fire weather and ignition sources. Untangling these various influences is difficult, so the role played by the warming climate is heavily debated.
Fire weather is calculated using the Forest Fire Danger Index, which takes into account vegetation dryness, wind speed, temperature and relative humidity. We tracked changes in this fire danger index over that 64-year period across all states and the Northern Territory. We also looked at distinct subregions such as south-west Western Australia. What we found was startling. Rather than a linear increase, fire regimes tracked along a similar line – and then suddenly jumped. For most states and territories, that happened around the year 2000.
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