The selling pressure returned to the Aussie Dollar on Thursday, prompting AUD/USD to rapidly leave behind Wednesday’s bullish attempt to the boundaries of the key hurdle at 0.6600 the figure.
AUD/USD resumed its downtrend and revisited the area below 0.6550. The US Dollar traded in a vacillating fashion post-US PCE data. Retail Sales in Australia disappointed expectations in September. Following the current price action, spot remains below the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average at 0.6627. Such scenario is expected to favour the continuation of the downside trend, at least in the short-term horizon.
Though disinflationary trends are emerging, they may not be enough for the RBA to begin easing its policy cycle just yet. In fact, the RBA is largely expected to maintain its official cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at its upcoming meeting on November 5. The market currently assigns only a 15% probability to a 25-basis-point cut by December, while a rate cut in February is priced at under 50%.
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