AUD/USD bulls look to build on positive momentum beyond 100-day SMA/0.6800 mark – by hareshmenghani AUDUSD RBA Fed Inflation Currencies
n session. Spot prices reclaim the 0.6800 mark for the first time since February 24, with bulls making a fresh attempt to build on the strength further beyond the 100-day Simple Moving Average .
The Australian Dollar continues to draw support from the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise 25-basis-points interest-rate hike last week and a more hawkish outlook. Adding to this, the RBA's Statement of Monetary Policy released on Friday highlighted that risks for inflation were tilted on the upside and that a further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target.
In fact, the USD Index , which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near the monthly low amid growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of its rate-hiking cycles. The Fed Fund futures point to a 90% probability that the US central bank will hold interest rates steady in June. Moreover, the markets have also started pricing in the possibility that the Fed beginning cuttingin the second half of this year.
Apart from this, the risk-on impulse - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - further undermines the safe-haven Greenback and benefits the risk-sensitive. That said, a goodish intraday pickup in the US Treasury bond yields acts as a tailwind for the USD and could cap gains for the AUD/USD pair in the absence of any relevant economic data from the US.
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