Climate change is about to cause the collapse of one of the world's great ocean currents. The consequences will be devastating
Climate change is about to cause the collapse of one of the world's great ocean currents. The consequences will be devastatingOne of the world’s great geophysical phenomena is the flow of warm water, and associated weather, from the Gulf of Mexico across the Atlantic towards western Europe. This flow is known as the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Drift and although huge in scale, it is merely a surface feature of a much bigger ocean process.
The whole process is known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC. In the last twenty years or so, climate scientists have uncovered evidence that this vast ocean current has switched off in the past, such as during the last ice age. And recently, they have begun to worry that climate change is slowing it down so that it could once again come to a halt, with devastating impacts for Atlantic marine life and European land life.
These processes are reducing the salinity and density of northern waters, making them less likely to sink and removing a key driver of the AMOC current. Indeed, there is growing evidence that the flow of water in various parts of the cycle is reducing in volume. “The collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064,” they say. “The probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be 59 per cent ± 17 percent.”What’s more, the warning signs are likely to be few and far between. The sea surface temperatures in the sub-polar regions of the North Atlantic are unlikely to offer early warnings, say the team.
Perhaps most worrying is that these consequences are likely to be upon us well before humanity reaches its goals of achieving net zero, let alone reducing atmospheric carbon levels. Whether or not such a reduction could restart the AMOC and over what kind of timescale is an open question.
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