A Federal Reserve tracker of economic growth is pointing to an increased chance that the U.S. economy has entered a recession.
presented by the European Union, Powell was asked what he would tell the American people about how long it will take for monetary policy to tackle the surging cost of living.
Whether that turns into recession is unknown. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions and expansions, notes that two consecutive quarters of negative growthto be declared. However, since World War II there never has been an instance where the U.S. contracted in consecutive quarters and was not in recession.
"The model's long-run track record is excellent," he said."Since the Atlanta Fed first started running the model in 2011, its average error has been just -0.3 points. From 2011 to 2019 , its tracking error averaged zero."
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