New data from Columbia shows that thousands of deaths could have been avoided if coronavirus restrictions were implemented just days earlier.
stay-at-home orders and lockdowns from March 19 when there were around 9,100 cases. President Trump declared a national emergency on March 13 and on March 16, he ordered Americans to limit gatherings of more than 10 people and avoid discretionary travel.
But by that time, it was too late to bring the outbreak under control. New York, which issued a stay-at-home order on March 22, hadhaving eased restrictions to some degree this week, ahead of Memorial Day weekend. Just under a third of global cases to date—1.55 million— are in the U.S., while more than 93,000 people have died.If social distancing measures and other methods to bring the virus under control had been implemented one week earlier, data shows that:
The New York metropolitan area, the centre of the virus in the U.S., would have avoided 210,000 confirmed cases and 17,500 deaths.The estimates are based on infectious disease modeling measuring the impact that reduced contact had on the spread of the disease in mid-March. But the researchers added that, in practice, ordering control measures is made harder by factors such as “uncertainty, economic concerns, logistics and the administrative decision process,” and a lag in public compliance due to “suboptimal awareness” of the risk of infection.“A longer response time results in a stronger rebound of infections and death. Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive response in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic,” the report read.
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