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Investor allocation to equities relative to bonds has dropped to its lowest level since the global financial crisis as worries about a recession take hold, according to Bank of America’s global fund manager survey.
In the most bearish survey of this year – the first after banking turmoil roiled markets last month – investors indicated that fears of a credit crunch had driven up bond allocation to a net 10 per cent overweight, its highest level since March 2009. A net 63 per cent of participants now expect a weaker economy, the most pessimistic reading since December.
In April, the “most crowded” trades deemed by global managers were long big tech stocks , short US banks and long China equities .Still, the bearish turn in sentiment is a contrarian signal for risk assets, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in the note on Tuesday. If “consensus lust for recession” isn’t satisfied in the second quarter, the “pain trade” would be a rally in bond yields and bank stocks, he said.
US stocks have bounced back from last month’s lows, which was sparked by the collapse of some regional US lenders including Silicon Valley Bank. The SStill, some strategists including JPMorgan Chase’s Marko Kolanovic remain cautious about the outlook for “overbought” technology stocks that have helped fuel this year’s gains.
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