A potentially hazardous asteroid dubbed Y4, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, has raised global alarm due to its increasing probability of impacting Earth. With an estimated explosion power 100 times greater than an atomic bomb, the potential consequences of a collision are catastrophic. NASA and the International Asteroid Warning Network are closely monitoring Y4's trajectory and have issued warnings about its potential threat. While the current probability of impact stands at 1.6% for December 22, 2032, experts remain optimistic that the agency's planetary defense strategies, informed by the successful DART mission, can mitigate the risk.
An asteroid with the potential to cause an explosion one hundred times more powerful than an atomic bomb has sparked global concern among space agencies . This space rock, nicknamed Y4, is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, roughly the size of a football field, and its possibility of colliding with Earth has risen to a level that cannot be ignored.
Bruce Betts, chief scientist at The Planetary Society, explained to Agence France-Presse last week that if Y4 were to impact a major city like Paris, London, or New York, it would result in the complete devastation of the city and surrounding areas. The asteroid was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued a memo on January 29, 2025, highlighting the growing threat posed by Y4. NASA's attention was drawn to the asteroid due to its unusual trajectory. Kelly Fast, NASA's acting planetary defense officer, stated to AFP that the observations of Y4 were persistent, unlike typical asteroid sightings that fade quickly. This suggested a higher chance of a prolonged presence and a potential for impact. Currently, the probability of a collision is estimated at 1.6%, with a predicted impact date of December 22, 2032. Potential impact zones include the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, according to the IAWN memo. While acknowledging the gravity of the situation, NASA remains optimistic that it can avert a disaster. Fast reassured the public, stating that they have the capability to detect, predict, and plan for potential asteroid impacts. The agency's 2022 DART mission, which successfully demonstrated the deflection of an asteroid, offers a hopeful precedent for mitigating the threat of Y4. The analysis of Y4's orbit indicates that it will come within 66,000 miles of Earth on December 22, 2032. Betts expressed confidence that the probability of impact will decrease to zero over the next few years as more observations are gathered. He emphasized the importance of continued monitoring and detailed analysis of Y4's path. The 2024 YR4 asteroid observed by NASA using the Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope at the New Mexico Institute of Technology on January 27, 2025.
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Astronomers discover 196-foot asteroid with 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032Robert Lea is a science journalist in the U.K. whose articles have been published in Physics World, New Scientist, Astronomy Magazine, All About Space, Newsweek and ZME Science. He also writes about science communication for Elsevier and the European Journal of Physics. Rob holds a bachelor of science degree in physics and astronomy from the U.K.
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