The odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032 have increased to 1 in 43, but experts emphasize that the probability of a miss remains high and the situation is constantly evolving as we gather more data about its orbit.
The odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032 have increased to 1 in 43, according to astronomers. While this may seem alarming, experts emphasize that the probability of a miss remains high and the situation is constantly evolving as we gather more data about its orbit. Asteroid hunter David Rankin, who first discovered 2024 YR4 in archival data, explained that these fluctuating odds are a natural part of the process.
He anticipates the impact probability to decrease significantly in the near future as our understanding of the asteroid's trajectory improves. Initially, the chance of an impact was 1 in 83, or 1.2%, meaning there was a 98.8% probability of a miss. Now, with the revised odds at 1 in 43, the impact probability stands at 2.3%, but this doesn't mean the chance of a miss has halved. Rankin stresses that the public shouldn't worry yet as the most likely outcome remains a miss.The uncertainty surrounding 2024 YR4's impact possibility stems from the inherent limitations in measuring the precise position of newly discovered asteroids. Rankin likened it to holding a long stick and moving it slightly; even a minuscule shift can result in a significant change at the other end. In this context, the 'fraction of an inch' movement represents the tiny uncertainties in the asteroid's positional measurements due to factors like timing errors and minor positional inaccuracies in telescope observations. To account for this, astronomers plot a range of possible orbits, creating a distribution of possibilities. As more observations are made and the asteroid's path is tracked over a longer period, the uncertainty diminishes, leading to a more precise prediction of its trajectory
ASTEROID IMPACT 2024 YR4 ORBITAL TRAJECTORY SPACE NEWS SCIENTIFIC PREDICTIONS UNCERTAINTY IN ASTEROID MEASUREMENTS
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