The day ahead in crypto: Sept. 30, 2025
You are viewing Crypto Daybook Americas, your morning briefing on what happened in the crypto markets overnight and what's expected during the coming day. Crypto Daybook Americas will arrive in your inbox each morning to kickstart your day with comprehensive insights.
If you're not already subscribed, clickIf Monday's trading performance in crypto and related equities is any indication of what October and the fourth quarter may bring, it could be a buoyant period for an industry still lagging behind both U.S. equities and metals.jumped 5% from Friday’s fear-driven session to a more neutral stance at $114,000 on Monday, showing how quickly sentiment as measured by the Still, the largest cryptocurrency gave up some of those gains and was recently trading around $112,800. It will probably need gold to relinquish some attention before its next move higher. That might be a challenge, however. Gold continues to outperform, delivering nearly 50% year-to-date returns and climbing to another record high above $3,870 earlier today. At the same time, the dollar index cannot generate momentum and has fallen below 98, which is positive for risk-assets., the trading platform added to the S&P 500 in its most recent rebalancing, saw its share price jump 12% on Monday as the quarter comes to a close. September has been a pretty subdued month for cryptocurrencies, with the CoinDesk 20 Index little changed over the period, up just 0.54%.$1.6 billion, third creditor payout under its bankruptcy plan through BitGo, Kraken and Payoneer. Creditors must complete KYC and tax forms to qualify.BTC staking on mainnet, enabling wrapped BTC tokens staking with 25% consensus weight; un-staking period cut to 7 days; rewards start.Sept. 30, 10 a.m.: U.S. Sept. CB Consumer Confidence. Est. 96.proposal to create a $40,000 pilot fund. This would allow the community to directly finance small ecosystem projects using a conviction voting pool. Voting ends Oct. 1.According to BoltLiquidity core contributor Max Arch, the shift is due to Aster's offering of between 100x and 300x leverage. HyperLiquid's markets are mainly capped at 40x. "Traders are following the leverage, regardless of underlying platform quality, but we’ll see how the increased risk that comes with higher leverage caps impacts platforms like Aster long-term," ArchThe exchanges' native tokens, ASTER and HYPE, have performed poorly over the past week; with the former sliding from $2.39 on Sep. 25 to $1.80, while HYPE is down from Sep. 18's high of $58.92 to $44.32. The bearish token performance relative to trading activity can be attributed to a wider altcoin sell-off that led to the removal of $200 billion from the sector's total market cap last week, according toThe market is showing signs of a potential shift back to a bullish bias as derivatives metrics, including open interest and basis, show a pickup. Overall BTC futures open interest rose to roughly $31 billion from a recent monthly low of $29 billion. This increase indicates a renewed interest from traders, with Binance still leading at $12.7 billion. The three-month annualized basis is also recovering, climbing to 7% from around 6%, which makes the basis trade more profitable.While the 25 delta skew for short-term options continues to drop, suggesting traders are paying a premium for puts and signaling a desire for downside protection, the 24-hour put-call volume is telling a different story. In a clear reversal from recent trends, calls now dominate the volume, making up 65% of the contracts traded. This sharp increase indicates that despite the cautious sentiment reflected in the skew, a significant number of traders are actively positioning for a short-term rally. This divergence highlights a highly polarized market, where a mix of hedging strategies and speculative bets creates a state of mixed sentiment. Funding rates on major venues like Binance and OKX have turned positive, rising to around 7% and 10% respectively. This indicates a growing appetite for leveraged long positions, where long traders are now paying shorts, a classic sign of positive market sentiment. While the funding rate on Hyperliquid remains volatile, the trend on key exchanges suggests that traders are once again becoming confident and willing to take on bullish exposure Coinglass data shows $316 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 44-56 split between longs and shorts. ETH , BTC and others were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $115,000 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.ETH is down 2.13% at $4,138.84 Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 12 bps at 2.93%Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.13% at 5,506.85Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.48% at 22,591.15U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.6 bps at 4.125%E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,814.75After testing the 20-day exponential moving average on the weekly chart, bitcoin has rebounded to the $114,000 level and is now holding above all major daily EMAs. For bulls, the key objective will be to push through the daily order block between $116,000 and $118,000, which would confirm a market structure break and signal a potential trend reversal. On the downside, a close below Monday’s high at $114,870 would leave bitcoin open to the possibility of retesting Monday’s lows. This level also aligns with the EMA100 on the daily chart, making it an important area of confluence to watch.Coinbase Global : closed on Monday at $333.99 , -1.77% at $328.09 in pre-marketGalaxy Digital : closed at $34.29 , -1.90% at $33.64MARA Holdings : closed at $18.66 , -2.63% at $18.17Core Scientific : closed at $17.33 , -0.52% at $17.24CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF : closed at $44.21 , -1.02% at $43.76Semler Scientific : closed at $29.24 , -0.14% at $29.20Upexi : closed at $5.62 , -1.25% at $5.55: The SEC Commissioner said tokenization raises complex questions about how digital and traditional securities coexist, urging issuers to seek guidance as the market expands toward multitrillion-dollar potential.: A standoff over health funding has stalled negotiations, raising the prospect of furloughs, court closures and delayed services if government funding lapses tomorrow.: The pilot using Circle’s USDC and EURC aims to let banks and remittance firms avoid pre-funded accounts, speeding cross-border transfers and improving capital efficiency on Visa Direct.: The initiative starts with Circle’s EURC and USDC trading on 360T’s 3DX and via Crypto Finance, with custody managed by Clearstream through Crypto Finance’s German entity as sub-custodian.: SG-FORGE’s EURCV and USDCV went live on Uniswap and Morpho, enabling borrowing against crypto and tokenized T-Bills, with Flowdesk providing spot market liquidity.: Concerns over rampant speculation, record valuations, tariff-driven inflation risks and October’s rocky history are fueling warnings that Wall Street’s record-setting rally may be vulnerable to a sharp reversal.You are viewing Crypto Daybook Americas, your morning briefing on what happened in the crypto markets overnight and what's expected during the coming day. 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