There's one sure winner in the AI explosion, say analysts: Dutch outfit ASML
"The expected growth in the adoption of these AI solutions across enterprises and hyperscalers is therefore expected to result in a sharp increase in GPU, CPU, memory and high speed connectivity chip demand," the Jeffries analysts wrote, adding that this is going to push foundry operators to adopt more advanced manufacturing technologies in greater volumes.
Another trend highlighted in the research note is the growing size of CPU and GPU dies. As a general rule, the larger the dies get, the fewer that can be packed onto a wafer, and the lower the yields – working chips that emerge from the finicky manufacturing process - – will be. While GPU and CPU dies have certainly grown much larger over the past few years, most chipmakers – including Intel and AMD – have transitioned to a chiplet architecture that combines multiple smaller dies onto a single package. In theory this improves yields and lower costs. AMD has found great success employing this technology on its CPUs and, more recently, GPUs.
Intel has also warmed up to chiplets in recent products . Its newly released Sapphire Rapids Xeon scalable processors and Ponte Vecchio GPUs are among its first forays into the architecture. However, regardless of the die size, Jefferies notes that ASML is poised to capitalize on a ramp in AI demand."Based on this outlook, we remain comfortable with our forecast revenue growth of 21 percent and 15 percent CAGR respectively for ASML and ASM between 2022 and 2025." ®
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