Asian shares and most currencies held tight ranges on Monday, as investors awaited developments on U.S. fiscal stimulus and coronavirus vaccines amid a resurgence of infections in Europe.
The signal from futures was not very optimistic, with the S&P 500 e-minis falling 0.1% and pointing to a weak start for Wall Street on Monday.Coronavirus cases have now surpassed 30 million, casting a gloomy pall over prospects of a V-shaped economic recovery.
The biggest threat to global growth is a resurgent pandemic, with analysts fearing growth and inflation could surprise on the downside in the coming year. A lack of material development on U.S. stimulus package is also an overhang, they said. Adding to worries, European countries from Denmark to Greece announced new restrictions on Friday to curb surging coronavirus infections in some of their largest cities, while Britain was reported to be considering a new national lockdown.
“Where is the inspiration for the equity bulls, I ask? We have diminishing prospects of fiscal stimulus, crazy valuations and a firm focus on an ugly U.S. election and COVID shutdowns, which suggest short-term risks for equities,” said Pepperstone strategist Chris Weston. “Of course, the lack of early movement may be a red herring as the news, perhaps the Oracle/TikTok deal aside, can hardly be perceived as positive, but there has been no risk aversion expressed in FX, through this illiquid period.”, the greenback eased 0.2% to 104.35 to drift closer to a recent 3-1/2 month trough.
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