Political News and Conservative Analysis About Congress, the President, and the Federal Government
In the closing days of the 2024 campaign, both the size and partisan tilt of the Senate majority could be determined by the presidential contest.Republicans could still take back the Senate if Harris wins in November. Trump will carry West Virginia and Montana by big margins no matter what happens nationwide. West Virginia has pretty much been in the bag for the GOP since Democrat-turned-nominal independent Sen.
That means Republicans will likely flip the 51-49 Democratic Senate to 51-49 or 52-48 in their favor, regardless of the presidential outcome. But if Trump wins, the Senate races in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Arizona and Nevada, where the Democrats have built fairly solid leads, become much more in play for Republicans. are not polling as well as they should be, with an independent candidate starting to gain momentum in Nebraska.
Trump has, in the past, been seen as an obstacle to downballot Republican success. Democrats running on anti-Trump sentiment recaptured the House in the 2018 midterm elections. When Trump cast doubt on the 2020 election results, Republicans lost two Georgia runoffs and, with them, the Senate. The GOP failed to win back the Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, with Trump’s primary endorsements sharing part of the blame.A lot of these candidates need Trump to do well.
One additional wildcard is the Maryland Senate race. Former Gov. Larry Hogan is more competitive there than any Republican has a right to be. Trump can’t help him much, and Hogan often has to run away from the national party brand. He will probably need too big of a Democratic crossover vote to prevail.
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