Several challenges loom over the NATO summit. Find out what they are
. In 2008, at a summit in Bucharest, the allies agreed that Ukraine and Georgia “will become members of”, but did not say how or when. Many now believe that was the worst of all worlds: a red rag to Russia, without any benefit to Ukraine.
Britain, France, Poland and other eastern allies want Ukraine fast-tracked after the war, much like Finland, which in April enteredless than a year after formally applying, compared with the eight years it took Montenegro. “We need something much more substantial and we need a path towards membership,” said Mr Macron in May. America and Germany are more cautious. “I don’t think [Ukraine is] ready for membership in,” said Joe Biden, America’s president, on July 9th.
That will disappoint Ukraine. The consolation prize in Vilnius is likely to be a separate document agreed by a smaller coalition of countries on the margin of the summit, pledging long-term military aid. The aim will be to signal to Russia that the flow of arms from allies to Ukraine is locked in for years to come, and insulated from the vagaries of national politics—including the possible re-election of Donald Trump next year.
America, Britain, Canada and Germany have positioned relatively modest battlegroups on Polish and Baltic soil, with the intention of reinforcing them quickly in a crisis. Theretort that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, however botched, swallowed an Estonia-sized swathe of territory within weeks, and that war crimes occurred during even brief periods of occupation. They accordingly favour larger peacetime garrisons, and a strategy of forward defence.
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