Is your candidate winning? As the midterm election approaches, here's how to read political polls and keep your sanity.
. The polling average maintained by the FiveThirtyEight site had Biden’s approval at 42% on Thursday, compared with 53% disapproving — not great, but about the level of approval that PresidentsAverages have pluses and minuses — anyone putting together an average has to make decisions about which polls to include, for example. But their great strength is that they pool information from lots of different surveys conducted lots of different ways.
Sure enough, in Suffolk’s poll, Ryan has a bigger lead among people most certain to vote. Vance is ahead among people who are less certain to cast ballots, Paleologos said.
A final source of uncertainty for surveys: Polls in 2016 and 2020 tended to underestimate the Republican vote, especially in Midwestern states with lots of blue-collar white voters — places like Ohio and Wisconsin, where, inbut Republicans are strenuously attacking his opponent, Lt. Gov.Pollsters have spent a lot of time studying the 2016 and 2020 results to try to figure out who they missed and why.
Polls have a good track record of being able to “predict the outcome within a few percentage points,” Keeter said. That’s a good thing, but “elections are often decided by less than a few percentage points.”These days, waking up to current events can be, well, daunting. If you’re seeking a more balanced news diet, “The Times” podcast is for you. Gustavo Arellano, along with a diverse set of reporters from the award-winning L.A.
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