House prices fell for the third straight month in September, but regional trends and affordability data suggest the west coast may be most at risk for steeper price declines.
There are clear regional differences in the data. The south east including Tampa, Charlotte, Atlanta and Miami remains relatively robust with prices up around 20% year-on-year despite recent declines.
San Francisco, which is the closest major market to seeing absolute falls in value, is also one of the least affordable metro areas on the Atlanta Fed’s analysis. That’s also true of much of the west coast. Here affordability is very low, both compared to other regions of the country and historical data.
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