The most puzzling part of the New York Time-Siena College poll released Sunday is the even divide between the candidates among voters under 30.
People cast their votes at a polling place at Ohio State for the 2022 midterm election. It is a full year until the 2024 presidential election. Neither of the two major parties has finalized its candidate, though there isn’t much mystery about who those candidates are likely to be. Polls about how voters plan to cast their ballots in a year’s time are always a bit dubious, particularly when the participating candidates are still at least somewhat murky.Those things are all true.
Among all registered voters in all of the battleground states who are under the age of 30, Trump and Biden are essentially tied. When considering just those voters likely to vote, Biden has a six-point lead, but that’s far worse than the 26-point margin he had with that same group nationally in 2020, according to Pew Research Center’sof the past four elections.
We’re comparing apples to oranges here to some extent, pitting the battleground voters against the national Pew analysis. But if we compare 2020 exit polling in each state for these age groups to the Times poll, we see a similar shift: big movement to the right among the youngest voters and smaller shifts among older ones.
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