An Israeli ground invasion would lose the consensus, writes Lina Khatib.
About the author: Lina Khatib is the director of the SOAS Middle East Institute at SOAS University of London and an associate fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House.
Qatar has found in the war an opportunity to reinvigorate its status as mediator. Qatar hosts some of the leadership of Hamas and enjoys good relations with Iran, which backs Hamas. Qatar is acting as intermediary in hostage negotiations between Hamas and Israel, which has so far led to the release of four hostages. Qatar is framing this achievement—and associated praise from the U.S.—as proof that it is correct in its strategy of keeping communication lines open with multiple opposing actors.
The months before the war started were dominated by the intensification of talks between Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the U.S. to pave the way for Saudi-Israeli normalization. The war has stalled but not derailed the talks. They are likely to resume, with Saudi Arabia insisting on the two-state solution it originally proposed as part of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative.
Lebanon has already gotten a taste of the war: Iran-backed Hezbollah has launched rockets on Israel in support of Hamas, leading Israel to retaliate by bombing areas in southern Lebanon. Although Iran and Hezbollah have escalated their rhetoric against Israel, threatening a new battlefront, it is unlikely that Lebanon will be dragged into a full-on war with Israel.
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