The first CPI report of Q2 should be seen as welcome news by the FOMC.
Summary The headline CPI rose 0.3% in April, a tenth below consensus expectations, while the core CPI also increased 0.3%, in line with expectations but a downshift from the pace registered in Q1. Flat food prices and a decline in energy services prices helped to partially offset a jump in gasoline prices in the headline index.
If realized, this would bring the three-month annualized and year-over-year rates to 3.4% and 2.8%, respectively. On balance, the April inflation data should help restore some confidence at the Fed that price growth is continuing to moderate through the month-to-month noise. That said, we think it will take more than just one solid CPI report to induce the first rate cut.
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