Apple has raced to a $3 trillion market value from $1 trillion in just 41 months . Despite that surge and significant risks, the technology giant run by Tim Cook can continue to evade the law of large numbers.
Apple’s revenue, $366 billion in the most recent fiscal year, is in the same ballpark as the GDP of Israel or Hong Kong. The company returned nearly
to investors through share buybacks and dividends last year, more than the entire market value of any but the top 40 or so groups in the S&P 500.For more than a decade leading up to 2019, the company's shares typically traded at a price-to-earnings ratio discount to the broader market. That's no longer the case, but today's stock price doesn’t look badly overstretched. At roughly 30 times earnings, it’s only a little richer than the S&P 500 overall.
There are threats to the hefty percentage that Apple extracts from app developers like Epic Games, which is challenging Cook’s company in court . Those income streams matter for top-line growth. And China, which accounted for a fifth of revenue last fiscal year as well as being a key supplier for sales elsewhere, is a source of both supply-chain and trade-policy uncertainty.
Still, after a decade at the helm, Cook has capitalized on the crown-jewel smartphone created by his predecessor, Steve Jobs
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