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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in South Carolina’s state primary

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in South Carolina’s state primary
Henry Mcmaster2026 ElectionsSouth Carolina

South Carolina voters will choose nominees for governor and other state and federal offices in a primary election on Tuesday.

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Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. , makes his way to the Senate chamber for a vote at the Capitol, Tuesday, May 19, 2026, in Washington. Dr. Annie Andrews, a Democrat running against Sen.

Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. , waves from the stage at the South Carolina Democratic Party Convention, Saturday, May 30, 2026, in Columbia, S.C. Privacy booths are seen on the morning of the South Carolina Republican primary election at a church in Cayce, S.C. , Feb. 24, 2024.

Privacy booths are seen on the morning of the South Carolina Republican primary election at a church in Cayce, S.C. , Feb. 24, 2024. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.

, makes his way to the Senate chamber for a vote at the Capitol, Tuesday, May 19, 2026, in Washington. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. , makes his way to the Senate chamber for a vote at the Capitol, Tuesday, May 19, 2026, in Washington.

Dr. Annie Andrews, a Democrat running against Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. , waves from the stage at the South Carolina Democratic Party Convention, Saturday, May 30, 2026, in Columbia, S.C. Dr. Annie Andrews, a Democrat running against Sen.

Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. , waves from the stage at the South Carolina Democratic Party Convention, Saturday, May 30, 2026, in Columbia, S.C. WASHINGTON — South Carolina voters will choose nominees for governor and other offices in a state primary on Tuesday, the latest test of President Donald Trump’s sway over Republican voters. Seven Republicans and three Democrats have lined up to succeed Republican Gov.

Henry McMaster, who is term-limited after 10 years in office. Regardless of party, his replacement will play a key role in the early stages of the 2028 presidential race, with the state expected to again hold criticalof Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette to succeed McMaster could be decisive in a state he carried in three presidential campaigns with at least 55% of the vote.

But a recent Republicanshowed that Trump’s backing, while powerful, is not a guarantee of success. Trump’s pick in that race, U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra,The candidates for the Democratic nomination are state Rep. Jermaine Johnson, attorney Mullins McLeod and businessman and former Bill Clinton-era U.S. Department of Education chief of staff Billy Webster.

Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham faces five Republican primary challengers in his bid for a fifth term. He also has Trump’s endorsement. Graham had spent more than $29 million on his reelection bid as of May 20, far outpacing any of his Republican or Democratic challengers.

He entered the final stretch of the primary campaign with about $4.2 million remaining in the bank, more than double the rest of the Republican field combined. Mace’s campaign for governor leaves her 1st Congressional District seat open. Seven Democrats and 11 Republicans will appear on the primary ballots, although one Republican, former Gov.

Mark Sanford, has None of South Carolina’s seven congressional seats is expected to be particularly competitive in November, but those seats were at the center of a mid-decade redistricting effort backed by Trump to eliminate the state’s sole Democratic-held seat. The Republican-controlled state SenatePrimary winners must receive a majority of the vote to avoid a June 23 runoff between the top two vote-getters.

Greenville, Horry, Charleston, Richland and Spartanburg counties are the most populous in the state and play significant roles in primaries for both parties, although large counties with significant Black populations, like Richland, Florence and Sumter, tend to have a bigger impact in Democratic contests. The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, secretary of state, treasurer, attorney general, comptroller, state school superintendent, agriculture commissioner and state House.

As of Friday, there were about 3.4 million registered voters in South Carolina. Voters in South Carolina do not register by party. The 2018 and 2022 Republican primaries for governor each had about 368,000 votes cast. In the Democratic gubernatorial primaries, there were about 240,000 votes cast in 2018 and about 182,000 in 2022.

About 29% of the Democratic primary vote and about 17% of the Republican primary vote in the 2022 gubernatorial primaries was cast before primary day. As of Friday, about 279,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, almost all of it from early in-person voting.

Nearly all of South Carolina’s 46 counties release all or almost all of their early in-person and mail voting results in the first vote update of the night, usually before releasing any results from in-person Election Day voting. In the 2022 primary, the AP first reported results at 7:21 p.m. ET, or 21 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 1:14 a.m. ET, with 99.9% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

In South Carolina, recounts are automatic if the margin between the winning and losing candidates is 1% of the total vote or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 14 days until the primary runoff elections on June 23 and 147 days until the Nov. 3 general election. Yoon is an elections and democracy reporter for The Associated Press, with a focus on analyzing vote and demographic data and explaining the intricacies of the electoral process. He is now covering his seventh presidential campaign cycle.

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Henry Mcmaster 2026 Elections South Carolina Lindsey Graham Pamela Evette U.S. Democratic Party Associated Press SC State Wire Decision Notes Jermaine Johnson U.S. Department Of Education U.S. Republican Party Nancy Mace Billy Webster Mark Sanford Annie Andrews Joe Wilson Political Endorsements Bill Clinton 2024 United States Presidential Election Randy Feenstra Politics Zach Lahn Jeffrey Epstein Elections Alan Wilson Ralph Norman United States House Of Representatives

 

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