The bull market turns 10 years old this weekend, but a Wall Street CIO says slipping consumer confidence and high stock valuations are a danger sign.
Consumer confidence hit an 18-year high in October — a reading that, upon first glance, seems like a good sign. After all, comfortable consumers spend more, and that behavior is responsible for about 70% of the US economy.it made a small comeback in 2019Further, since consumer confidence is a measure that assesses economic sentiment over a forward six-month period, any sort of decline can be interpreted as a negative signal for the direction of stocks.
"The decline doesn't have to be that large to create economic problems," McMillan told Business Insider by phone."If confidence were to take a hit, you could reasonably expect stock market valuations to drop as well.
In McMillan's view, the high price-to-sales ratio means investors are counting on strong economic growth, and there's a good chance they'll be disappointed even if the economy continues to expand.
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