Despite the 525 bps of rate hikes that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has implemented since March 2022, the U.S.
Summary economy generally remains resilient due, in large part, to continued strength in consumer spending. Meanwhile, inflation has receded. We believe it would be premature to claim that the economic storm has passed, because the battle against inflation has not yet been decisively won. There already are some cracks that are beginning to appear in the economy, and these strains likely will intensify in the coming months as monetary restraint remains in place.
The Sun Belt and Mountain West have outperformed the Northeast and the Midwest in recent years, and these trends likely will remain in place for the foreseeable future. In the commercial real estate market, storm clouds hover above the office sector and the multifamily sector. Fundamentals in the retail and industrial sectors are stronger. We believe the global economy will face an unsettled climate in 2024, and the economic storm could be quite severe at certain times and for certain economies.
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