Russia has one the largest military budgets in the world. But the “dysfunctionality” of its system “has clearly led to the deterioration of military capabilities”, writes Ukraine’s former defence minister
ONE OF THE main lessons of Russia’s war in Ukraine is already clear: a formidable advantage in capabilities is no guarantee of success. Comparing the size of the two countries’ forces, most Western experts did not hold much hope for Ukraine. The fighting so far, however, has played out contrary to expectations.
Russia’s strategic mistake has been an overestimation of its own capabilities and an underestimation of Ukrainian ones. Their whole plan was based on one main scenario which involved suppressing Ukrainian air defences, multiple advances on key Ukrainian cities and a successful lightning attack on Kyiv. They failed to anticipate just how much resistance they would meet from Ukraine’s armed forces and from its civilians.
Reforms in the Ukrainian army in recent years are now proving their worth, too. Many were inspired by the organisational structure of Western forces. One of the most important changes Ukraine made was to elevate the role of non-commissioned officers—senior enlisted men, like sergeants, who supervise troops—in the manner of NATO armies. This allows knowledge and skills to be passed on to soldiers. The Western principle ofhas also been adopted by Ukraine’s forces.
Technology and tactics have also played an important role. During eight years of war in Donbas Ukraine has mastered the use of artillery and other arms. In addition, Ukrainian forces acquired modern weapons, including portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems, procured with the help of Western partners such as America and Britain. Operating in small groups that are difficult to target from the air, they attacked Russian troops from different sides.
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