The Hero RB strategy offers notable advantages over the trendy Zero RB tactic in securing consistent and dominant running back production.
Over the past decade, the Zero RB strategy has gained popularity among fantasy football managers as a way to minimize draft-day risk. The strategy, pioneered by writerin 2013, involves de-emphasizing the running back position early in the draft and focusing instead on top-tier wide receivers, tight ends and perhaps a quarterback.
The NFL has seen another significant shift in offensive trends in recent years, with an increasing number of teams adopting a running-back-by-committee approach. This shift has resulted in fewer workhorse running backs and a less predictable distribution of touches. As a result, the number of marginally reliable running backs has diminished, making the Zero RB strategy less advantageous.
In addition, as the popularity of the fantasy game has grown, so too has the knowledge and experience of fantasy managers. With robust sources, expert analysis and a wealth of historical data, fantasy football players seem to have become more adept at navigating the complexities of the draft process. For example, in 12-team, point-per-reception leagues, the standard error for a running back drafted in the first three rounds was 19 last year.
Another argument touted by Zero RB endorsers is that running backs have a higher risk of injury than other positions due to the physical demands of their role. By not investing heavily in running backs early in the draft, Zero RB managers aim to reduce their risk of losing their top picks for huge chunks of the season.
The data doesn’t support this, at least not to a degree worth punting on the position early. From 2014 to 2016, wide receivers drafted in the first three rounds averaged almost two more games per season than running backs drafted in those early rounds. In 2018, it was a difference of almost three more games played. But since then, there has barely been a difference in games played between high draft picks at those two positions.
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