Analysis: Why Alabama is a poor pick to win your March Madness men’s bracket
, significantly higher than the next choice, Houston . And that’s the biggest reason to fade Alabama:Let’s look at the betting markets. Circa Sports, one of the sharpest sportsbooks in the country, has been offering a price of +700 for Alabama to win the national title and a price of -1040 for AlabamaAdvertisement
And so a team given a 12 percent chance to win it all in a betting market backed by money is being selected on 21 percent of brackets, a huge underlay — a situation in which the odds to win are too low and thus aren’t favorable. Even if you take Alabama and the Crimson Tide wins, you will need to excel in other rounds to have a chance at the top prize.
But it isn’t just that basic logic. Teams with profiles similar to Alabama in recent tournaments have also faltered. The most similar team to this year’s Alabama squad over the last 14 tournaments, according to efficiency metrics —, which was also a No. 1 seed — lost in the Sweet 16. The next most-similar team to Alabama — 2019 Duke, another No. 1 seed — lost in the Elite Eight.
Fellow No. 1 seed Houston, by comparison, is being offered odds of +550 to win it all and -765 to not, which suggests roughly a 15 percent chance of the Cougars becoming the national champion. As mentioned, they are being selected on about 13 percent of brackets, which indicates they do have some value. However, Houston also comes with some question marks — especially the health of star guard Marcus Sasser, who sustained a groin injury during the AAC tournament.The other No.
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