Analysis: Campaign analogies are imperfect, but at the start of this year, the 2024 Republican race loosely resembled the Democratic nominating contest in 2008.
Obama’s early going was plagued by problems and frustrations. As his chief strategist David Axelrod said later, “Basically he had leaped into the deep end of a very cold pool, and I think it was a shock to the system.” Obama didn’t have the luxury of finding his footing slightly out of the public eye. Every mistake was magnified because he was, as he would later put it, starting under the bright lights of Broadway. DeSantis can identify with that.By summer 2007, Obama was on the defensive.
Although there are similarities in the way their candidacies took shape, DeSantis is no Obama. Obama had a positive message, an appeal to better angels . DeSantis’s message is the opposite, an appeal with edge and grievance, a call to defeat everything “woke” , a pledge to dismantle the federal bureaucracy. This is partly an echo of Trump, and DeSantis is betting that Republican voters want to hear it.
Obama also was comforted by the disconnection between national and state polling. In that campaign, national polls tended to show Clinton with a clear lead. But in state polls, a different pattern emerged. For most of 2007, she, Obama and Edwards were within seven percentage
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