Brazilian presidential front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has gained steam in the final stretch of the campaign, opinion polls show, and could defeat incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the first round on Sunday – if his base shows up to vote in full force
Still, rising voter abstention, especially among less affluent Brazilians who lean toward leftist Lula, could mean the election goes to a second round. If no one among the 11 candidates gets more than 50% of votes, excluding blank and spoiled ballots, the two front-runners - almost certainly Lula and Bolsonaro - would go to an Oct. 30 run-off vote.
"Lula has a real chance of winning in the first round, but abstention will be a big challenge for his Workers Party and its allies," said Andre Cesar of political consultancy Hold Assessoria Legislativa. He warned that Lula's lead in opinion polls could leave some supporters thinking their vote is unneeded.
"If turnout is good in all groups, Lula wins outright," said analyst Rafael Cortez at Tendencias consultancy.Eurasia Group estimated last week a 20-25% chance of Lula winning the election in the first round, with the odds rising as supporters for candidates polling in low single digits switch to Lula and Bolsonaro.
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