Analysis: New research shows an existing willingness among Trump supporters to reject any election loss.
to describe the day as a constitutionally protected day of protest. But views of Trump’s culpability have not moved much, despite the new evidence presented during those hearings.And despite the other ways in which our understanding of how the day unfolded has expanded. This month has brought two new pieces of research showing how Trump supporters were primed to reject the results before Election Day and what motivated participants in the riot itself.
Researchers Brendan Hartnett of Tufts University and Alexandra Haver of the New York University School of Law conducted a national poll in late October 2020 to evaluate the extent to which supporters of the then-president were primed to view any result as unacceptable. Their thesis was that willingness to reject the results should be dependent on margin: a 1-point loss should yield more people indicating a willingness to resist than a 10-point one.
It didn’t. Presented with a range of possible losses from 1 to 12 points, somewhere between 40 and 50 percent of respondents believed that the results should be contested. Only past a 12-point win for Joe Biden did support drop off. “Even when respondents were given a hypothetical scenario in which Biden’s large margin of victory would make voter-fraud concerns especially irrelevant, there still was widespread support for Trump to resist the outcome,” Hartnett and Haver write.they thought the election should be contested. More than a third of those who said it should be simply cited that they were Trump supporters.
But, of course, a lot of respondents also pointed specifically to purported concerns about the election and about the possibility of fraud . That more than half pointed to worries about fraudSo the stage was set.
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