Analysis: The key numbers for NFL betting — and how to use them to your advantage
The unique scoring structure of American football — three points for a field goal and six points for a touchdown before the extra point, which is worth one point, so long as a team decides not to try for a two-point play — clumps scoring differentials around certain key numbers. That makes betting on the NFL different from wagering on other sporting events: The key numbers should almost always dictate your approach to wagering on weekly point spreads.
Of further interest to sports bettors is how often particular point spreads ended exactly on the number: with a three-point favorite winning by three points, for example. The push rate for a game with a point spread of three is nine percent; not surprisingly, that’s the highest push rate for any point spread other than 14, which has less than one-tenth the sample size.
If this sounds confusing, don’t worry: Here’s a quick primer how you should approach several key numbers on the point spread. If the point spread is three, you’ll want to either play the favorite at -2½ or the underdog at +3½, as both options give you the benefit of turning a push into a win in the event of a three-point final margin.
Let’s go back to a real world example. If the line for the Buffalo Bills in a game against the Miami Dolphins is -4 -110 and you can find an alternate spread of -6½ at +120 odds or better — meaning a profit of at least $120 for every $100 wagered — that’s a more profitable play. The chances of the Bills winning by exactly five or six — a win at -4½ but a loss at -6½ — aren’t high enough to cancel out the bigger winnings if they cover the larger spread.