Analysis: Sweet 16 upset watch begins with the unlikely bid of the Oregon Ducks
The Ducks are the only double-digit seed still alive in the NCAA tournament. By Neil Greenberg Neil Greenberg Reporter analyzing advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog Email Bio Follow March 27 at 11:03 AM This year’s Sweet 16 will feature almost all of the top 16 seeds. No. 1 seeds Duke, Virginia, North Carolina and Gonzaga all made it through. No. 2 seeds Michigan, No. 2 Tennessee, No. 2 Kentucky and No.
For example, head coach Dana Altman employed a double team with Wooten against Wisconsin’s Ethan Happ. Happ is able to muscle Louis King down low into the post but with Wooten lurking near the basket, it ends up being a blocked shot instead, one of three blocked shots on Happ for the game. As a result, Oregon’s chances to upset Virginia, based on the same formula used to help create the perfect bracket and fuel DAViD, the Data-Assisted Victory Detector, are low at 7 percent.No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Purdue, 7:29 p.m., TBSPurdue’s defense has gone from good during the regular season and Big Ten conference tournament to great in the tournament , holding opponents to 0.72 points per possession and 37 percent shooting over two games.
Defensively, Houston limits shooters to a 47 percent field goal rate around the basket and a nationwide-low effective field goal rate of 37 percent on all jump shots, two possession types that account for 80 percent of Kentucky’s offense in the half court.Auburn has won 10 straight games, including the SEC tournament title, by adhering to a very simple formula: shoot the three.
That plays into the Hokies’ preferred tempo. Virginia Tech is one of the slowest teams in the nation, generating just 64 possessions per game while forcing opponents to use, on average, 19 seconds on the shot clock. If the Hokies can extend that just a little longer, Duke could be in for a surprise: the Blue Devils are 30 for 82 on shot attempts with four seconds or less on the clock this season, partially because last-second shots come from distance and Duke struggles to shoot from long range.
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