Analysis: Republicans haven’t really had a good election day since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade 11 months ago, and that continued Tuesday night.
This is, of course, still a relatively small number of races, and it’s still a long way until the 2024 election. The value of these results in predicting races that are more than 17 months away is small, as
back in February. But special elections have historically provided significant clues about where things stand, especially when you look at them holistically rather than analyzing one or two high-profile contests.More than anything, though, the 2023 results thus far look a lot like the special election results occurring afterwas overturned in June 2022. Republicans had been overperforming in special elections before that date, but afterward the trend flipped on a dime.
That wound up being instructive. Despite some theorizing about a “red wave,” Democrats had one of the best midterm elections for a president’s party . They lost the House, but they actually gained Senate seats, governor’s seats and state legislative chambers. And they of course also did well in the 2018 and 2020 elections.
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