Analysis: In election 2022, the party of Trump pays for being the party of Trump
for it Tuesday. His presence has created an energized electorate. Since he was elected, huge voter turnouts have become the norm: a midterm record in 2018, a presidential-year record in 2020 and a near record again this year. Midterm elections usually mean complacency among voters whose party just won the White House. In the age of Trump, every election is consequential, and both sides come highly motivated.
Republicans failed to make significant gains in part because they failed to attract the voters who often make the biggest difference in midterm elections. Every time there has been a party shift in the House in recent midterm elections, independent voters played a decisive role in helping the winning side. This year independent voters split their voters almost evenly, 49 percent for Democratic House candidates and 47 percent for Republicans, according to exit polls from Edison Research.
The lack of an anti-incumbent mood brought split results in some states. One example is Wisconsin, which has weathered some of the sharpest partisan warfare in the country for the past decade. On Tuesday, voters reelected Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, one of the least charismatic politicians in the country, and Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, one of the most controversial. In New Hampshire, voters reelected Republican Gov. Chris Sununu by 15 points and Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan by almost 10.
Democrats also did well in state legislative races where it mattered most, holding all their legislative majorities while winning control of Republican chambers in a number of states. This too ran counter to midterm patterns. Democrats lost hundreds of legislative seats during the midterm elections of 2010 and 2014. This year, in Michigan, which conducted its legislative elections under fairer maps than the maps produced after the 2010 redistricting, Democrats captured both chambers.
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