Analysis: A look at patterns of partisan defection over the past 20 years.
I mention that bit of self-promotion both for the purposes of self-promotion and because it is useful for establishing the reason I wrote this article.
A simplified example will hopefully make the process I used clearer. Imagine 10 votes involving 10 Republican senators. In six votes, nine senators formed the majority, so on those six votes, the defection percentage was 10 percent. On three votes, eight senators agreed, giving a defection percentage of 20 percent. On the other vote, the plurality position had four senators supporting it, with the other six votes split among other options. The defection percentage was 60 percent.
You’ll notice that Republicans in the 118th Congress are … pretty loyal! In more than 9 of 10 votes, the level of defections was less than 15 percent of Republicans. That’s actually better than the Democrats have done this year.But there’s a reason for it: Republicans are in the majority. For the GOP, votes are more critical than they are for Democrats, since Democrats can’t pass anything with only Democratic votes.
In the Senate, we see a similar pattern: The party that’s in the majority has more loyalty from its members.
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