Analysis: While Russia wants to make good on its supposed “no limits” friendship with Beijing, Chinese officials and analysts describe the ties between the countries as not a full-fledged alliance.
Chinese officials and analysts openly warn against the “NATO-ization” of the Asia-Pacific —
the term they invoke for growing security cooperation and coordination between a host of regional powers and the United States. Lyle Goldstein, an expert on both China and Russia at the Defense Priorities think tank, told me that the engagement of NATO in Asia “feeds into China’s possible paranoia and serves Russia’s agenda of bringing [the two countries] closer together.
While Russia, squeezed by Western sanctions, wants to make good on its supposed “no limits” friendship with Beijing, Chinese officials and analysts speak of the ties between the two countries as not a full-fledged alliance. Even over the course of the war in Ukraine, China, to a certain extent, has kept Russia at arm’s length and won’t send finished arms and weapons to buttress the deeply depleted Russian war machine.
“We have to realize that China is acting with restraint and moderation, and I don’t think that’s appreciated in the West,” Goldstein said.That restraint may fade as tensions with the West ratchet up, or if Ukraine makes major headway in its spring counteroffensive on territories lost to Russia.
“Russia’s size and power may give the Kremlin a false sense of security as it locks itself into an asymmetrical relationship with Beijing,” wrote Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center,. “But the durability of this relationship, absent major unforeseeable disruptions, will depend on China’s ability to manage a weakening Russia.
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