As the ANC goes through a series of provincial and league conferences that will elect the party’s leaders and representatives, a dynamic may be emerging that could dramatically change the geographical power balance within the party.
It is probably the case that there are three major factors that determine the political power of an ANC province or region. Thesecond, which may be the factor that soon will matter the most, is whether it is still controlling the government in that province.
eThekwini, which used to almost predict the future of our politics, can no longer claim to have that power. Mpumalanga, which suddenly had the second-highest number of branches before Nasrec, is no longer under the control of one person, David Mabuza. This suggests that while provinces and regions can have high branch numbers, the internal divisions will lose them political power.
Before 2007, the Eastern Cape ANC was seen as a kingmaker, having the highest number of branches. Thabo Mbeki, a man originally from that province, was the president. Now, something important may be about to happen in a way that could disrupt this dynamic dramatically.
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