Analysis: The fast-emerging conventional wisdom is that a bipartisan No Labels ticket in the 2024 presidential race would benefit Donald Trump by pulling votes away from President Biden. But a new poll calls that conventional wisdom somewhat into question.
But as we’ve noted, much could depend on who the candidates actually are and the atmosphere next year.suggests it might not be as simple as the conventional wisdom suggests.
The poll tested three races: one with just Trump and Biden; one that also included a generic “fusion” ticket; and one with two specific candidates on that fusion ticket — Sen. Joe Manchin III and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr. . Initially, Biden leads Trump by seven points in the head-to-head among those who will “definitely” or “probably” vote for either one. But unlike the other polls, Monmouth’s shows no significant shift when a third-party ticket is introduced.
It bears emphasizing that, in all likelihood, these numbers of people wouldn’t wind up actually voting for such tickets; third-party tickets almost always poll better than they ultimately perform, because voters ultimately want to choose between candidates who have a chance of winning.The pollster tried to simulate such a situation — one in which it was looking like that ticket could indeed become a spoiler in the race.
Further, the specific Republican and Democrat would matter. As we’ve noted, Manchin is a Democrat, but he’s actually. Pair him with a standard-issue, traditional Republican who has broken with Trump , and the ticket actually would seem more ideologically aligned with conservatives.None of which means the fears about what a No Labels ticket could mean for Biden are unwarranted.
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