Forecasting is both art and science, reliant on both rigor and luck—but you can develop a mindset that anticipates and plans ahead.
We live in an Age of Uncertainty. Not just because of the global threats to societies, but many face unprecedented insecurity at a personal level, particularly the younger generations. None of us know what is going to happen, and we might as well face up to it. And that’s the first lesson in making predictions: Don’t make predictions. Meaning, don’t just make a guess as to what will happen. Instead, embrace uncertainty and turn it into an opportunity.
What Makes a Good Forecaster? “Superforecasters” can assess good probabilities for the future, where “good” means they are “calibrated,” so that when they say “70 percent chance,” those events happen in around 70 percent of cases, and they are “discriminatory,” so that high probabilities tend to be given to events that happen.
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